Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.656916 1.723289 1.792497 1.870351 1.955872 2.047396 2.153350
2025-11-30 1.581179 1.668997 1.763630 1.874054 2.000526 2.142343 2.315614
2025-12-07 1.497356 1.595336 1.703170 1.832079 1.984012 2.160147 2.384207
2025-12-14 1.446223 1.553259 1.673238 1.819786 1.997085 2.209186 2.489900
2025-12-21 1.399830 1.513100 1.641957 1.802164 2.000309 2.243896 2.577989
2025-12-28 1.377998 1.499621 1.640179 1.818328 2.044127 2.330489 2.740239
2026-01-04 1.363546 1.493542 1.646078 1.843105 2.099071 2.434369 2.936695
2026-01-11 1.336290 1.470589 1.629937 1.838682 2.115000 2.486217 3.063502
2026-01-18 1.315143 1.453933 1.620407 1.841546 2.139850 2.551190 3.216964
2026-01-25 1.280820 1.419815 1.587618 1.812398 2.119126 2.549009 3.262900
2026-02-01 1.257668 1.398655 1.570185 1.802302 2.123544 2.582977 3.371481
2026-02-08 1.234978 1.377286 1.551602 1.789613 2.123199 2.609168 3.469406
2026-02-15 1.214080 1.358136 1.535909 1.781055 2.129535 2.647993 3.599758
2026-02-22 1.201500 1.348942 1.532504 1.788664 2.159127 2.724922 3.813732
2026-03-01 1.171871 1.317289 1.498875 1.753309 2.123474 2.694043 3.810954
2026-03-08 1.154342 1.300632 1.484360 1.743824 2.125711 2.725137 3.939734
2026-03-15 1.135524 1.281839 1.466449 1.728823 2.118673 2.739905 4.036426
2026-03-22 1.129677 1.279537 1.470198 1.744313 2.158760 2.838109 4.339990
2026-03-29 1.127029 1.281219 1.479175 1.767430 2.211877 2.964613 4.750802
2026-04-05 1.114546 1.269698 1.469938 1.763696 2.221911 3.013514 4.979081
2026-04-12 1.105025 1.261820 1.465374 1.766515 2.242518 3.084104 5.292956
2026-04-19 1.085389 1.240192 1.441484 1.739968 2.213505 3.056183 5.303773
2026-04-26 1.072644 1.227464 1.429535 1.730798 2.212898 3.084180 5.501259